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Predskazaniye budushchego

 

Nekotoryye patterny v mirovoy istorii i kak oni mogut byt' ispol'zovany dlya prognozirovaniya budushchego

(1) Lletis¸im kökten farkl¦ ve gelis¸mis¸ yetenekleri ile yeni bir teknoloji ilk toplumun içine zaman, derinden kültürünü degšis¸tirmek ve asl¦nda, yeni bir medeniyetin bas¸lang¦c¦ olacakt¦r. Teknoloji yard¦m¦ dogšas¦nda Kaliteleri bu yeni kültürü s¸ekillendirmeye.

Medeniyet I: Yaz¦l¦ 3100 M.Ö. Mezopotamya'da icat edildi; Hindistan'da, 2500 B.Ç etraf¦nda .; vb Çin ve Girit, yaklas¸¦k 2000 M.Ö., bu bulus¸un tarihleri kabaca krall¦k ve imparatorluklar¦n daha sonra lider, bu devletler aras¦ndaki kent-devletlerinin ortaya ç¦kmas¦ ve savas¸ ile çak¦s¸maktad¦r. Ideografik yaz¦ bir okuryazar nüfus üretmek çok zor oldu ama profesyonel katipleri taraf¦ndan hakim oldu. Yaz¦l¦ kay¦tlar hükümet ve dini bürokrasisinin desteklemek için gerekli idi.

Medeniyet II: Alfabetik yaz¦ ilk orta 2. biny¦l gelis¸tirilmis¸tir Filistin ve Suriye'de. Ancak, gerçekten yaklas¸¦k 1000 M.Ö. 600 y¦l¦na kadar tutun sürmedi Yazma Bu tip nüfus acquire okuryazarl¦gš¦n¦n daha genis¸ ve daha aktif bir segmenti izin. Sorgulay¦c¦ beyinler kelime kavram¦n¦ aras¸t¦rmaya bas¸lad¦. Dini metinlerin belirmeye bas¸lad¦. Bu olaylar felsefe uygulamas¦n¦ ve dünya dinlerinin gelis¸imini desteklemis¸tir.

Medeniyet III: Yazd¦rma Bu kültürel teknoloji bilginin yay¦lmas¦na yard¦mc¦ ve evrensel egšitim sistemi desteklenen orta 15. yüzy¦lda Bat¦ Avrupa'ya geldi. Bas¦l¦ gazeteler is¸letmelerin müs¸terileri ile tebligš bas¸l¦ca yolu haline ticari reklam içeriyordu. Bas¦l¦ kitaplar okullarda birincil kaynak vard¦.

Medeniyet IV: elektronik iletis¸im çes¸itli cihazlar 19. yüzy¦l¦n sonu ve 20. yüzy¦l¦n bas¸lar¦nda icat edildi. Bu medya, gerçek zamanl¦ olarak kamu olaylar devam eden gösteri yaratt¦. Onlar ürünleri satan için is¸letmelerin birincil arac¦ olarak gazete yerine ticari reklam çekti. Bireysel performans yayg¦n toplumda tan¦nd¦.

Medeniyet V: Bilgisayar agšlar¦ 1990'l¦ y¦llarda popüler oldu. Onlar internette bireyler aras¦nda iki yönlü iletis¸imi izin verir. Ürünler için Müs¸teriler üreticileri ile dogšrudan iletis¸im kurabilir. Arama motorlar¦, kullan¦c¦n¦n özel ihtiyaçlar¦na iletis¸im bilemek.

(2) Yeni medeniyetler ayr¦ güç merkezleri olarak ay¦rmak, politik ve kültürel egemenlik iddia, bir kez gayr¦ organize hale kulplu fonksiyonlar¦ gibi yeni güç kurumlar¦n¦ üretmek.

Medeniyet I: Hükümet tap¦nak ayr¦l¦r. Kraliyet mahkemeler kurulmus¸tur. Savas¸an krall¦klar siyasi imparatorluklar olus¸turun. MS 2. yüzy¦lda Roma, Part, Kus¸an ve Han Çinli imparatorluklar¦n¦n doruk

Medeniyet II: Filozoflar hükümetleri reform sunuyoruz. Dini peygamberler meydan emperyal güç. Dünya din kurumu ikili bir düzenleme toplumu yönetecek laik güç yan¦nda ortaya ç¦kar.

Medeniyet III: Haçl¦ Seferleri Akdeniz ticaret tes¸vik. Krallar, Papa, Kutsal Roma imparatorlar¦ aras¦nda tefeciler finans savas¸lar¦. Kuzey I²talyan s¸ehirlerinin zengin tüccarlar sanat patronlar¦ ve hümanist çal¦s¸malarda çocuklar¦n¦ egšitimli. Bu bas¸lang¦çlar ticari imparatorluklar büyüdü. Üniversiteler, Avrupa ve Amerika genelinde filizlenmis¸.

Medeniyet IV: egšlence endüstrisi ticari toplumda, birçok aras¦nda, biri olarak ortaya ç¦kt¦. Radyo ve televizyon bask¦n egšlence ortam¦ olunca, egšlence, ticari ürünler satan bir anahtar oldu.

Medeniyet V: I²nternet Savunma departman¦ ve çes¸itli üniversitelerde öncülügšünü bagšl¦ bilgisayarlar¦n karmas¸¦k oldu. Aniden yeni ticari f¦rsatlar bulundu.

 

(3) Her medeniyet kendi egemen inanç ve degšerlerini, çekici kis¸iligši, kendi modellerini, ve genis¸ bir anlamda kendi "dini" gelis¸ir.

Medeniyet I: Bu s¸ehirler koruyucu tanr¦lar¦ vard¦ ve imparatorlar tanr¦las¸t¦r¦lan sivil din, çagš¦ oldu. Firavun, Julius Sezar, Büyük I²skender veya - bask¦n kis¸ilik fetih kral oldu.

Medeniyet II: Dünya din, din gibi, iyi anlas¸¦lmaktad¦r. Bu çagš filozoflar¦ ve dini peygamberlere kis¸ilik çekici modeller. Büyük krallar ve imparatorlar gibi Marcus Aurelius, Asoka, ya da Büyük I²skender gibi felsefe tecrübeli kis¸iler vard¦.

Medeniyet III: Dünya dinleri yürürlükte devam ederken, edebiyat, sanat, ve yeni bir müzik laik kültür manevi degšeri tas¸¦y¦c¦s¦ oldu. Bask¦n kis¸ilik yarat¦c¦ sanatç¦ ya da yazar oldu. I²yi düzyaz¦ yazd¦ Siyasi liderler büyüklügšünün niteliklerini ald¦. Frederick Büyük Frans¦z nesir yazma hakim. Thomas Jefferson ve Abraham Lincoln kendi nesir belagat için biliniyordu. Winston Churchill bas¸ka bas¸ar¦l¦ bir yazar oldu.

Medeniyet IV: filmler, müzik kay¦t, radyo dünya ve televizyon sahne sanatç¦lar¦ parlak y¦ld¦zlar oldugšu bir kültürel "cennet" olus¸turmaktad¦r. Egšlence-aç¦k-politikac¦ gibi Ronald Reagan ve Jesse Ventura gibi, bu yas¸ ile es¸zamanl¦ olarak bulunmaktad¦r.

Medeniyet V: Bu çagš¦n "din" ne olacagš¦n¦ bilmiyorum, ya da bir inek gibi kis¸ilik politik bas¸ar¦l¦ olacak m¦.

(4) Medeniyetler "gençlik" kendi döneminde kurumsal taraf¦ndan is¸aretlenir kuvvetli büyüme ve kültürel yarat¦c¦l¦k, imparatorluklar¦n olus¸umu ile is¸aretlenir "yetis¸kinlik", ve "düs¸üs¸" kendi döneminin kendi döneminde damgas¦n¦ oldugšu bir yas¸am döngüsünü takip zorlama ve bu imparatorluklar içeren s¸iddet.

Medeniyet I: Bu medeniyetin gençlik az bunun bilinen böylece uzak bir zamanda meydana geldi. M¦s¦r, Asur, Pers, Yunan, Roma, Part, Sasani, Mauryan, Gupta, Han ve ard¦s¸¦k Çinli imparatorluklar¦n: yetis¸kin as¸amas¦ büyük siyasi imparatorluklar¦n olus¸umu ile is¸aretlenir. Mesih'in sefer, Mideastern dünya mücadele yorgun. I²nsanlar bar¦s¸ özlemini çekiyordu.

Medeniyet II: Gençlik büyük filozoflar ve yas¸amlar¦ gibi Platon'un Diyaloglar olarak ya da dini kutsal edebiyat¦n klasikleri chronicled dini peygamberlerin yas¸amlar¦ ile is¸aretlenir. Yazma hala bir yenilik iken - Bu klasikleri sözlü ve yaz¦l¦ kültürün kesis¸tigši noktada yaz¦lm¦s¸ egšilimindedir. Yunanl¦lar Sokrates'in 'zaman içinde son zamanlarda okur idi. I²sa'n¦n hayat¦ I²ncilleri yaz¦lm¦s¸ sözlü önce söylendi. Buda ile ayn¦. Harb Mekke'de yazmaya popüler. Onun dini yap¦s¦, manast¦rlar¦, laik iktidar ilis¸kisi - Yetis¸kin faz dünya din kurumu taraf¦ndan is¸aretlenir. Düs¸üs¸ as¸amas¦nda, farkl¦ dinler birbiriyle kavga: H¦ristiyanlar Haçl¦ Seferleri ve I²spanya'da Müslümanlar¦ mücadele, Müslümanlar Hindular Hindistan'da mücadele. Bu da "sapk¦n" bir cad¦ yakma ve zulüm yas¸¦d¦r.

Medeniyet III: Gençlik I²talyan Rönesans, dünya kes¸if, Aztek ve I²nka imparatorluklar¦ fethi ve digšer kahraman kez yas¸ dönemidir. Bu kültür, son zamanlarda bask¦ maruz William Shakespeare, Cervantes, ve digšerleri üretti. Teolojik anlas¸mazl¦klar yorgun, Avrupal¦ ayd¦nlar dogšan¦n çal¦s¸maya döndü. Yetis¸kin faz üniversitelerin büyük ticari sistemlerin gelis¸tirilmesini ve ulus devleti gördüm. Düs¸üs¸ onun as¸amas¦nda, Avrupa emperyal rekabetleri ve iki dünya savas¸¦nda kendine tahrip. I²deolojiler nefret ve y¦k¦c¦ dönmüs¸tü.

Medeniyet IV: I²nsanl¦k iki dünya savas¸¦ as¸agš¦daki tasas¦z takipçiligši döndü. Popüler egšlence kamu yas¸am¦n¦n büyük bir parças¦ haline geldi. Bu çagšda Empire Hollywood stüdyolar¦ ve radyo ve televizyon agšlar¦ gibi s¸eyler olus¸uyordu. Hollywood filmleri ve televizyon, rap müzigšin y¦k¦c¦ vizyonu, okumay¦ nas¦l bilmiyorum gençlerin bir nesil seks ve s¸iddet: S¸imdi büyük zaman egšlence ile kamu hayal k¦r¦kl¦gš¦n¦n is¸aretler vard¦r.

Medeniyet V: I²nternet bu gün heyecan verici bir yerdir. Onun sahipleri hisse senedi fiyatlar¦ t¦rmanmaya gibi inan¦lmaz zengin olmus¸tur. Genç hacker, kurumsal web siteleri bozabilir. I²nternet kullan¦m¦ çarçabuk büyüyor. Bunun ötesinde, biz bilmiyoruz.

 

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(1) Lletis¸im kökten farkl¦ ve gelis¸mis¸ yetenekleri ile yeni bir teknoloji ilk toplumun içine zaman, derinden kültürünü degšis¸tirmek ve asl¦nda, yeni bir medeniyetin bas¸lang¦c¦ olacakt¦r. Teknoloji yard¦m¦ dogšas¦nda Kaliteleri bu yeni kültürü s¸ekillendirmeye.

Medeniyet I: Yaz¦l¦ 3100 M.Ö. Mezopotamya'da icat edildi; Hindistan'da, 2500 B.Ç etraf¦nda .; vb Çin ve Girit, yaklas¸¦k 2000 M.Ö., bu bulus¸un tarihleri kabaca krall¦k ve imparatorluklar¦n daha sonra lider, bu devletler aras¦ndaki kent-devletlerinin ortaya ç¦kmas¦ ve savas¸ ile çak¦s¸maktad¦r. Ideografik yaz¦ bir okuryazar nüfus üretmek çok zor oldu ama profesyonel katipleri taraf¦ndan hakim oldu. Yaz¦l¦ kay¦tlar hükümet ve dini bürokrasisinin desteklemek için gerekli idi.

Medeniyet II: Alfabetik yaz¦ ilk orta 2. biny¦l gelis¸tirilmis¸tir Filistin ve Suriye'de. Ancak, gerçekten yaklas¸¦k 1000 M.Ö. 600 y¦l¦na kadar tutun sürmedi Yazma Bu tip nüfus acquire okuryazarl¦gš¦n¦n daha genis¸ ve daha aktif bir segmenti izin. Sorgulay¦c¦ beyinler kelime kavram¦n¦ aras¸t¦rmaya bas¸lad¦. Dini metinlerin belirmeye bas¸lad¦. Bu olaylar felsefe uygulamas¦n¦ ve dünya dinlerinin gelis¸imini desteklemis¸tir.

Medeniyet III: Yazd¦rma Bu kültürel teknoloji bilginin yay¦lmas¦na yard¦mc¦ ve evrensel egšitim sistemi desteklenen orta 15. yüzy¦lda Bat¦ Avrupa'ya geldi. Bas¦l¦ gazeteler is¸letmelerin müs¸terileri ile tebligš bas¸l¦ca yolu haline ticari reklam içeriyordu. Bas¦l¦ kitaplar okullarda birincil kaynak vard¦.

Medeniyet IV: elektronik iletis¸im çes¸itli cihazlar 19. yüzy¦l¦n sonu ve 20. yüzy¦l¦n bas¸lar¦nda icat edildi. Bu medya, gerçek zamanl¦ olarak kamu olaylar devam eden gösteri yaratt¦. Onlar ürünleri satan için is¸letmelerin birincil arac¦ olarak gazete yerine ticari reklam çekti. Bireysel performans yayg¦n toplumda tan¦nd¦.

Medeniyet V: Bilgisayar agšlar¦ 1990'l¦ y¦llarda popüler oldu. Onlar internette bireyler aras¦nda iki yönlü iletis¸imi izin verir. Ürünler için Müs¸teriler üreticileri ile dogšrudan iletis¸im kurabilir. Arama motorlar¦, kullan¦c¦n¦n özel ihtiyaçlar¦na iletis¸im bilemek.

(2) Yeni medeniyetler ayr¦ güç merkezleri olarak ay¦rmak, politik ve kültürel egemenlik iddia, bir kez gayr¦ organize hale kulplu fonksiyonlar¦ gibi yeni güç kurumlar¦n¦ üretmek.

Medeniyet I: Hükümet tap¦nak ayr¦l¦r. Kraliyet mahkemeler kurulmus¸tur. Savas¸an krall¦klar siyasi imparatorluklar olus¸turun. MS 2. yüzy¦lda Roma, Part, Kus¸an ve Han Çinli imparatorluklar¦n¦n doruk

Medeniyet II: Filozoflar hükümetleri reform sunuyoruz. Dini peygamberler meydan emperyal güç. Dünya din kurumu ikili bir düzenleme toplumu yönetecek laik güç yan¦nda ortaya ç¦kar.

Medeniyet III: Haçl¦ Seferleri Akdeniz ticaret tes¸vik. Krallar, Papa, Kutsal Roma imparatorlar¦ aras¦nda tefeciler finans savas¸lar¦. Kuzey I²talyan s¸ehirlerinin zengin tüccarlar sanat patronlar¦ ve hümanist çal¦s¸malarda çocuklar¦n¦ egšitimli. Bu bas¸lang¦çlar ticari imparatorluklar büyüdü. Üniversiteler, Avrupa ve Amerika genelinde filizlenmis¸.

Medeniyet IV: egšlence endüstrisi ticari toplumda, birçok aras¦nda, biri olarak ortaya ç¦kt¦. Radyo ve televizyon bask¦n egšlence ortam¦ olunca, egšlence, ticari ürünler satan bir anahtar oldu.

Medeniyet V: I²nternet Savunma departman¦ ve çes¸itli üniversitelerde öncülügšünü bagšl¦ bilgisayarlar¦n karmas¸¦k oldu. Aniden yeni ticari f¦rsatlar bulundu.

 

(3) Her medeniyet kendi egemen inanç ve degšerlerini, çekici kis¸iligši, kendi modellerini, ve genis¸ bir anlamda kendi "dini" gelis¸ir.

Medeniyet I: Bu s¸ehirler koruyucu tanr¦lar¦ vard¦ ve imparatorlar tanr¦las¸t¦r¦lan sivil din, çagš¦ oldu. Firavun, Julius Sezar, Büyük I²skender veya - bask¦n kis¸ilik fetih kral oldu.

Medeniyet II: Dünya din, din gibi, iyi anlas¸¦lmaktad¦r. Bu çagš filozoflar¦ ve dini peygamberlere kis¸ilik çekici modeller. Büyük krallar ve imparatorlar gibi Marcus Aurelius, Asoka, ya da Büyük I²skender gibi felsefe tecrübeli kis¸iler vard¦.

Medeniyet III: Dünya dinleri yürürlükte devam ederken, edebiyat, sanat, ve yeni bir müzik laik kültür manevi degšeri tas¸¦y¦c¦s¦ oldu. Bask¦n kis¸ilik yarat¦c¦ sanatç¦ ya da yazar oldu. I²yi düzyaz¦ yazd¦ Siyasi liderler büyüklügšünün niteliklerini ald¦. Frederick Büyük Frans¦z nesir yazma hakim. Thomas Jefferson ve Abraham Lincoln kendi nesir belagat için biliniyordu. Winston Churchill bas¸ka bas¸ar¦l¦ bir yazar oldu.

Medeniyet IV: filmler, müzik kay¦t, radyo dünya ve televizyon sahne sanatç¦lar¦ parlak y¦ld¦zlar oldugšu bir kültürel "cennet" olus¸turmaktad¦r. Egšlence-aç¦k-politikac¦ gibi Ronald Reagan ve Jesse Ventura gibi, bu yas¸ ile es¸zamanl¦ olarak bulunmaktad¦r.

Medeniyet V: Bu çagš¦n "din" ne olacagš¦n¦ bilmiyorum, ya da bir inek gibi kis¸ilik politik bas¸ar¦l¦ olacak m¦.

(4) Medeniyetler "gençlik" kendi döneminde kurumsal taraf¦ndan is¸aretlenir kuvvetli büyüme ve kültürel yarat¦c¦l¦k, imparatorluklar¦n olus¸umu ile is¸aretlenir "yetis¸kinlik", ve "düs¸üs¸" kendi döneminin kendi döneminde damgas¦n¦ oldugšu bir yas¸am döngüsünü takip zorlama ve bu imparatorluklar içeren s¸iddet.

Medeniyet I: Bu medeniyetin gençlik az bunun bilinen böylece uzak bir zamanda meydana geldi. M¦s¦r, Asur, Pers, Yunan, Roma, Part, Sasani, Mauryan, Gupta, Han ve ard¦s¸¦k Çinli imparatorluklar¦n: yetis¸kin as¸amas¦ büyük siyasi imparatorluklar¦n olus¸umu ile is¸aretlenir. Mesih'in sefer, Mideastern dünya mücadele yorgun. I²nsanlar bar¦s¸ özlemini çekiyordu.

Medeniyet II: Gençlik büyük filozoflar ve yas¸amlar¦ gibi Platon'un Diyaloglar olarak ya da dini kutsal edebiyat¦n klasikleri chronicled dini peygamberlerin yas¸amlar¦ ile is¸aretlenir. Yazma hala bir yenilik iken - Bu klasikleri sözlü ve yaz¦l¦ kültürün kesis¸tigši noktada yaz¦lm¦s¸ egšilimindedir. Yunanl¦lar Sokrates'in 'zaman içinde son zamanlarda okur idi. I²sa'n¦n hayat¦ I²ncilleri yaz¦lm¦s¸ sözlü önce söylendi. Buda ile ayn¦. Harb Mekke'de yazmaya popüler. Onun dini yap¦s¦, manast¦rlar¦, laik iktidar ilis¸kisi - Yetis¸kin faz dünya din kurumu taraf¦ndan is¸aretlenir. Düs¸üs¸ as¸amas¦nda, farkl¦ dinler birbiriyle kavga: H¦ristiyanlar Haçl¦ Seferleri ve I²spanya'da Müslümanlar¦ mücadele, Müslümanlar Hindular Hindistan'da mücadele. Bu da "sapk¦n" bir cad¦ yakma ve zulüm yas¸¦d¦r.

Medeniyet III: Gençlik I²talyan Rönesans, dünya kes¸if, Aztek ve I²nka imparatorluklar¦ fethi ve digšer kahraman kez yas¸ dönemidir. Bu kültür, son zamanlarda bask¦ maruz William Shakespeare, Cervantes, ve digšerleri üretti. Teolojik anlas¸mazl¦klar yorgun, Avrupal¦ ayd¦nlar dogšan¦n çal¦s¸maya döndü. Yetis¸kin faz üniversitelerin büyük ticari sistemlerin gelis¸tirilmesini ve ulus devleti gördüm. Düs¸üs¸ onun as¸amas¦nda, Avrupa emperyal rekabetleri ve iki dünya savas¸¦nda kendine tahrip. I²deolojiler nefret ve y¦k¦c¦ dönmüs¸tü.

Medeniyet IV: I²nsanl¦k iki dünya savas¸¦ as¸agš¦daki tasas¦z takipçiligši döndü. Popüler egšlence kamu yas¸am¦n¦n büyük bir parças¦ haline geldi. Bu çagšda Empire Hollywood stüdyolar¦ ve radyo ve televizyon agšlar¦ gibi s¸eyler olus¸uyordu. Hollywood filmleri ve televizyon, rap müzigšin y¦k¦c¦ vizyonu, okumay¦ nas¦l bilmiyorum gençlerin bir nesil seks ve s¸iddet: S¸imdi büyük zaman egšlence ile kamu hayal k¦r¦kl¦gš¦n¦n is¸aretler vard¦r.

Medeniyet V: I²nternet bu gün heyecan verici bir yerdir. Onun sahipleri hisse senedi fiyatlar¦ t¦rmanmaya gibi inan¦lmaz zengin olmus¸tur. Genç hacker, kurumsal web siteleri bozabilir. I²nternet kullan¦m¦ çarçabuk büyüyor. Bunun ötesinde, biz bilmiyoruz.

 

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(5) Themes or values that prevailed at the beginning of an historical epoch often give way to their opposite as the epoch comes to an end.

Civilization I:

(a) This epoch is about the enlargement and consolidation of political power through military force. Its theme is one of the strong subduing the weak, of victory through bloodshed, of earthly grandeur and power. At the end of the epoch, contrary ideas came to the fore. Philosophers proclaimed that goodness is superior to wealth or power. Jesus taught that the last shall be first, and the first last and that the meek will inherit the earth. Succeeding the military conqueror was the "prince of peace". Originally applied to Solomon who followed the warlike David, this title was later applied to Jesus as Messiah. Also, two Roman emperors were princes of peace: Augustus pulled back to a more defensible border at the Danube river after the disastrous defeat at Teutoburg forest in 9 A.D. Likewise, Hadrian set the empire's boundaries at the Euphrates river after Trajan's unsuccessful attempts to reconquer land from the Parthians.

Civilization II:

(a) The early Christians were pacifists. Jesus offered no resistance to his captors. Christians at first refused to serve in Rome's imperial armies. But as Christianity became accepted within the Roman empire, Christians joined the army. Frankish kings gave the church territories in Italy which needed to be defended by force. Pope Urban II launched a new era in religious warfare when, in 1095 A.D., he gave his blessing to a Christian crusade to recapture the Holy Land from the Moslems. Religious warfare between Moslems and Hindus and even between Christians and Buddhists (in Japan) characterized the closing phase of this epoch. The ideal of peace had given way to that of war.

(b) Influenced by Plato's philosophy, early Christianity valued "things unseen" above those which could be seen. The body was evil; mind was good. Poverty was also a virtue. As the church gained worldly stature, it became wealthy. Churches were adorned with beautiful art. Massive cathedrals were built in 13th century France. Renaissance art joined forces with Christianity in the costly project to rebuild St. Peter's church - quite a thing to be seen.

Civilization III:

(a) Renaissance art is characterized by solid, round shapes that suggest palpable objects. Beauty lies in the perfected form of objects. By contrast, at the end of the third epoch the culture had become highly fragmented. Impressionist art did not attempt to depict form or shape but instead created the photographic impression of a scene from scattered dabs of paint. The disjointed forms of Picasso, atonal music of Stravinsky, Dada, objects trouve, etc., along with newly invented crossword puzzles, constituted a culture that was without cohesion or even coherence. This culture was without beauty in a traditional sense. Carl Jung compared it with the lacerated thought patterns of schizophrenic patients. A slogan at the Walker Art Museum in Minneapolis sums up the new ideal: "Bits & pieces put together to present the semblance of a whole." There can be no integrated whole.

(b) The European nation-state was in the ascendancy in late Renaissance times. One thinks of the trio of strong monarchs during the early 16th century: Henry VIII of England, Francis I of France, and Charles V of Germany, Austria, and Spain. In addition, Suleiman the Magnificent ruled the Ottoman empire and Akbar the Great ruled India. At the end of this epoch, the institution of the national monarchy was dealt a death blow as Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany, Franz Josef of Austria-Hungary, and Czar Nicholas II of Russia were removed from their thrones and replaced by democratic or socialist regimes. The Ottoman empire in Turkey was replaced by a democratic state.

(c) The third epoch of world history is characterized by the pursuit of wealth. European adventurers invaded the Americas in search of gold, enslaving Indians and Africans. Commercial colonies were formed in North America. Industrialization created new wealth. There was a reaction to this wealth in its waning days as labor unions were formed to oppose the owners of wealth. The antislavery movement reasserted human rights above the right to own people. Money was put in its place.

(d) The third epoch began with Europeans asserting control over peoples in other parts of the world. First, they overthrew the Aztec and Inca empires and colonized sparsely populated areas of North America. Later, Britain imposed colonial rule upon India. The European powers won trade concessions in China and carved up equatorial Africa as colonies. The 20th century, on the other hand, was a time when the European powers relinquished their colonies in Asia and Africa. Gandhi struggled for Indian independence. Mao Tse-tung and Ho Chi Minh brought independent rule to their nations under the auspices of communism.

Civilization IV:

(a) The entertainment culture began as fun - an unserious and safe activity suitable for children. This culture ends as big business seeking to protect its intellectual property and media conglomerates exploiting children by appealing to their violent instincts. The entertainment media have trivialized political discussions and, to pay for television commercials, forced politicians to seek money from special interests. This destructive side of the entertainment media overshadows its regenerative side.

(b) In the early 19th century, white Americans ridiculed blacks by supporting entertainment routines such as the "Jim Crow" ditty and blackface minstrel shows. In the mid 20th century, black entertainers gained respect as black athletes competed successfully with whites in professional sports and singers such as Elvis Presley appropriated black musical styles. By the late 20th century, political correctness ruled. Dramas portraying conflict between black and white Americans have usually put blacks in a positive role and reserved the villainous roles for whites.

(6) The arrival of a new civilization also affects institutions that were dominant two epochs earlier. Such institutions undergo a democratizing process.

Prehistory and Civilization II: In a preliterate culture, hereditary priesthoods preside over ritual-based religions through memorized formulae. In time, these priesthoods can develop a self-interest at variance with the interest of the larger community. Civilization II brought a reform of religion. Creeds and ideals became more important than ritual. Also, the priests of the new religions were selected from a broader segment of the population. The priestly positions were not hereditary but were, instead, based on meritorious or bureaucratic appointment. Buddha forcefully challenged the position of the Brahmin priests. He said: "No Brahman is such by birth; a Brahman is such by his deeds." The Buddhist monasteries admitted both men and women, persons of low as well as high birth. Likewise, Christianity allowed persons of low birth to rise in the ecclesiastical hierarchy. In contrast, Jewish priests had come from the tribe of Levi.

Civilization I and Civilization III: Imperial government was the dominant institution of Civilization I. In the third epoch of history, government underwent a democratizing process as commercial interests asserted their power in society. Democratic political revolutions occurred in England in the 17th century, in America and France in the late 18th century, and in Russia and China in the 20th century. Democracy replaced the hereditary basis of government leadership with a process of selection based on elections or bureaucratic promotions. Top government positions became open to persons of low birth. Abraham Lincoln was a symbol of that.

Civilization II and Civilization IV: The dominant institution of Civilization II was that of world religion: the church. How is organized religion democratized in the entertainment age? Some previously closed religious hierarchies have opened themselves to the ordination of women. Religion was a base of support for the black Civil Rights movement in the United States. Televangelist Billy Graham desegregated his rallies. American entertainment has provided opportunities for blacks and women.

Civilization III and Civilization V: The newly emergent, dominant institutions of Civilization III were commercial and educational institutions. Although we do not know what the fifth epoch of world history will bring, we can speculate upon the impact of computers. With respect to commerce, we know that business activity is strongly influenced by E-commerce. There is, indeed, a democratizing effect because the Internet lets merchants succeed without much capital investment. Anyone with a good idea and sound execution can succeed in selling products. Internet-related companies have created instant millionaires. With respect to education, the computer can create courses that will allow students to have high-quality, individualized instruction at a low cost. Therefore, all people, regardless of financial capacity, can afford to have a topnotch education - go to the best colleges, so to speak. That being the case, the fact that a person has attended one college rather than another should confer no social advantage. Computerized education will have a democratizing effect.

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Perils of Prediction

The science of prediction has a spotty past. Abundant tales show the folly of attempting to foresee how one or another invention might fare in daily life. "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax," said the eminent British scientist, William Thomson. In 1946, Darryl F. Zanuck, head of 20th Century Fox, took a dim view of television's future. "People will soon get tired to staring at a plywood box every night," he predicted. President Rutherford B. Hayes said of Bell's telephone: "That's an amazing invention but who would ever want to use one of them?" Concurring with that sentiment, a Western Union memo commented: "This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications."

Others took an overly optimistic view of technologies that were emerging in their day. A vacuum cleaner manufacturer predicted in 1955: "Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably become a reality within 10 years." A writer for the Brooklyn Eagle predicted in 1900 that "mail will be delivered to homes in pneumatic tubes." Futuristic scenarios conceived in the 1950s saw masses of people commuting to work in helicopters. On the other hand, there were many important inventions that no one foresaw: microwave ovens, Velcro, TV dinners, laser surgery, air bags, the Internet.

Knowing the future can be valuable if a person is able to position himself or invest his money to take advantage of an emerging trend. Stock-market advisers make a living from keeping abreast of the latest product developments in their area. Thousands of investors anxiously await each month's issue of the Gilder Technology Report. Its web site is jammed when the report is first posted on the Internet. Stock prices quickly shoot up when Gilder makes favorable comments about a technology or a company with products utilizing it. Gilder's own following virtually ensures that. But, of course, the first investors with this information reap the biggest rewards; investment news is soon discounted.

In the mid 19th century, a group of intellectuals clustered around Ralph Waldo Emerson were inspired by the thought that American culture would soon equal or surpass European culture. No one embraced this idea more enthusiastically than Walt Whitman, the poet, who wrote in Democratic Vistas: "I, now, for one, promulge, announcing a native expression-spirit .. for these States ... different from others, more expansive, more rich and free, to be evidenced by original authors and poets to come, by American personalities ... and by native superber tableaux and growths of language, songs, operas, orations, lectures, architecture - and by a sublime and serious Religious Democracy sternly taking command ... and from its own interior and vital principles, reconstructing, democratizing society." What actually came, when American culture triumphed a century later, was popular culture - films rather than operas, rock lyrics rather than poems, vaudeville, cartoons, sitcoms, and other unserious works. Few professed to be creating expressions of democratic culture. Except in the Soviet Union, that kind of thinking was out of date. Whitman could not have anticipated the impact of new communication technologies upon cultural expression.

The most sweeping kinds of prediction have been associated with religion. From time to time religious prophets have appeared to announce that the world would shortly end. William Miller brought thousands of his followers to the hill tops of Massachusetts and New York state to await that event, expected to occur within a year after March 21, 1843. When this period of time had lapsed and all seemed normal, Miller rescheduled the apocalyptic date for October 22, 1844. Its failure to occur was dubbed "the great disappointment". The Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, early Christians, Branch Davidians, Heaven's Gate cult, and others have had similar expectations; yet, to date, the world as we have known it through history remains largely intact. It is therefore conceded that attempts to predict ends of the world or any larger course of events will and should be met with considerable skepticism.

In 30 B.C., right after Octavian defeated Antony and Cleopatra at the battle of Actium to become undisputed ruler of the Roman empire, an historian might have made several predictions. First, recognizing that a series of warlords (sometimes in partnership) had ruled Roman society for more than a half century, he might have foreseen that the relatively inexperienced Octavian, Julius Caesar's nephew, would eventually lose out to someone else in a power struggle. He might have foreseen that the raging tensions between rich and poor would tear Roman society apart or, perhaps, be resolved in the Senate. None of these things happened. Octavian had unexpected political and administrative skills which allowed him to consolidate power in himself and found Rome's first imperial dynasty. Dynasties of this type lasted in the West until the 5th century A.D. and, in the East, until the 15th century A.D.

The same historian, looking at Rome's position in the world, might have made several other predictions. Recalling that the Persians had conquered the Medes and Babylonians, and that Alexander the Great of Macedon had conquered Persia, and that Rome had conquered the remnants of the Seleucid, Ptolemaic, and Macedonian Greek empires, he might pessimistically have expected that some new political empire would conquer Rome's, perhaps the fierce Parthians to the east. Or, taking a more optimistic view, he might have expected that Rome would conquer the Parthian empire. Neither happened. Rome continued to withstand the Parthians despite centuries of warfare. The Parthians, succeeded by the Sasanid Persians, likewise staved off defeat at the hands of the Romans. Recalling Julius Caesar's successful prosecution of the Gallic wars, this historian might also have expected the Roman empire to expand into barbarian territories to the north and east. This possibility was only partially fulfilled. The Romans did conquer much of Britain and Rumania; however, their attempt to expand eastward into Germany was frustrated when Germanic tribes led by Hermann decimated three Roman legions in a battle fought in 9 A.D. Octavian, now Augustus Caesar, subsequently fixed his empire's eastern boundary at the Danube river.

Rome's ultimate fate was completely off this historian's radar screen. Despite Hermann's victory, it would have been most unlikely that Germanic or other nomadic tribes could overrun the western Roman empire, sack Rome, and establish petty kingdoms throughout western Europe while Roman government would last in the eastern provinces for another thousand years. Even less likely would have been that a religious prophet from Galilee, condemned by action of a Roman proconsul in Judaea and executed for blasphemy sixty years later, would come to be worshiped as "Son of God"; and that his cult, after centuries of persecution, would first claim a sizable share of Rome's population and then become Rome's state religion; and that the new religion of Christianity would provide the cultural matrix for post-Roman society, converting Rome's nomadic conquerors, and then spread into lands throughout the earth. World religion as a successor to political empire would have been most inconceivable.

Fifteen hundred years later, the possibility of religious empire was plainly seen. Militant Christians who had expelled the Moors from the Iberian peninsula were eager to win new souls for Christ. Alexander VI had issued a papal bull in 1493 dividing the newly discovered lands outside Europe between Spain and Portugal on condition that they convert the people of those lands to Christianity. A plausible scenario, given Europe's destined expansion of influence, was that the Roman church would eventually rule the entire world. It did not happen. Although Jesuit priests supported by the Spanish and Portuguese colonial governments converted the native peoples of Latin America to the Roman Catholic religion, similar efforts in the Far East failed when the Chinese and Japanese governments expelled Christian missionaries in the 17th century. Europe itself became religiously divided during the period of the Protestant Reformation. Despite the Pope's declaration, the French, Dutch, and English colonized North America; they seemed more interested in obtaining commercial advantages than in spreading the Christian religion. The times were turning away from religious ambition and instead embracing such things as commerce, science and technology, literature and music.

So it would seem that would-be predictors of the larger trends would consistently have been frustrated had they foreseen world history as a logical progression from things in the past. New institutions and new sets of concerns arise to replace those known in the past; and it seems that the future will gravitate more towards what has never been than what was. Of what use, then, is history in predicting the future?

All we can say is that history is our main source of knowledge about how the world works in concrete situations. Political leaders charged with making important decisions often let historical analogies guide their decision making process. For instance, Harry Truman wrote in his autobiography that he saw a parallel between the Congressional "Committee on the Conduct of War" established during the U.S. Civil War, which became a center of espionage for the Confederacy, and a similar investigating committee which he chaired during World War II. He therefore took extra precautions to make sure that this committee did not leak valuable information to the Nazis. "Almost all current events in the affairs of governments and nations have their parallels and precedents in the past," Truman wrote. "I know of no surer way to get a solid foundation in political science and public administration than to study the histories of past administrations."

General Jakabu Gowan, Nigeria's head of state during the war with secessionist Biafra, had read Carl Sandberg's four-volume biography of Abraham Lincoln. Identifying his own cause with that of the North, Gowan told reporters that he could recognize the "Shermans" and the "Grants" among his commanders. On the other hand, Adolf Hitler was mistakenly encouraged by President Franklin D. Roosevelt's death to hope that the Allies might relax their military pressure upon his crumbling nation because his hero, Frederick the Great of Prussia, had been rescued from probable defeat when Russian armies pulled back following the death of Catherine the Great. Such analogies may or may not follow through.

To predict history on the broadest level we cannot rely upon any particular set of events proceeding from the present situation but only on general expectations based on the nature of human societies like the following: What goes up usually comes down. What is born dies. People fight for rank and position. Powerful interest groups try to protect their own turf. These are some of the "lessons" to be drawn from past history. On the positive side, the new is youthful and vigorous and creative, but also unpredictable. One must make allowance for unexpected paradigm shifts. Future history will frustrate our best efforts to project a certain vision unless, perhaps, we ourselves participate in the fulfilling events.


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