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patterns in history
| communication technology
| dominant institutions
| trends reverse
| perils of prediction
Some
Patterns in World History and How they can be Used to Predict the Future
Civilizations
belong to a living culture and have characteristics of living organisms.
They rise and fall in the cycles of life. World historians have identified
certain societies that have gone through the complete cycle. Rome's
civilization, once powerful, has now become extinct. So have civilizations
of the Babylonian, Mayan, Sinic, Indic, Syriac, and other societies.
Civilization,
in a broad sense, transcends the life cycles of individual societies,
passing its culture along to peoples in many parts of the earth. But
they, too, have come one after another to comprise successive historical
epochs. Four civilizations have already come and developed to a mature
state. Another has recently appeared on the cultural horizon; it remains
in embryonic form. That makes five civilizations altogether, which are:
Civilization
I: This is the earliest form of civilized society beginning in the
4th millennium B.C. with the rise of Mesopotamian and Egyptian city-states
and culminating in the four great empires - Roman, Parthian, Kushan,
and Han Chinese - of the 2nd and early 3rd centuries A.D. Its age
was characterized by by conflict between nomadic and agricultural
societies and by wars and political empire-building. The technology
of writing (originally, in ideographic form) supported its culture.
Civilization
II: This is what civilized societies became after the philosophical
and spiritual awakening of the 6th and 5th centuries B.C. which was,
in turn, related to the invention of alphabetic writing. Although
this civilization was begun in a period dominated by political empires,
it came into its own after the Huns and other nomads destroyed these
empires between the 3rd and 6th centuries A.D. The dominant institution
in society became religion. The three world religions - Buddhism,
Christianity, and Islam - and other religious or philosophical systems
such as Hinduism, Judaism, and Confucianism dominated human culture
in the first 1,500 years of the Christian era.
Civilization
III: This is the civilization of European secular culture which began
with the Italian Renaissance of the 14th and 15th centuries A.D. and
continued through the first two decades of the 20th century A.D. Humanist
literature and art as well as empirical science mounted a challenge
to philosophically based religions. This civilization was predominantly
commercial although secular education also played an important role.
Society became organized in European-style nation states. The technology
of printing supported its culture.
Civilization IV: This is the culture of news and entertainment that
we have come to know in the late 20th century. Advertising drives
commerce, and the media in which advertising takes place (especially
television) become powerful institutions within society. Various electronic
technologies such as the telephone, sound recordings, cinema, radio,
and television support this culture which emphasizes the sensuous
aspect of human personality.
Civilization
V: All we know about this culture is that it is computer-based. Computers,
which support two-way communication between man and machine, are quite
unlike the technologies of mass communications. However, computer-based
systems and applications are developing so rapidly that it is hard
to predict what will come next.
Four
of these five civilizations have seen the light of day. The fifth -
the computer-based civilization - is like an infant opening its eyes
for the first time. Because world history now contains a fairly complete
record of the first four civilizations, it is possible to identify certain
historical patterns that apply to civilizations as they develop from
one stage of life to another, based upon examination of these civilizations.
Once the general pattern is established, it then becomes possible to
apply this to the civilization that is just now beginning to develop,
giving us a glimpse into the future.
Some
of the patterns that appear from an examination of the first four civilizations
include the following:
(1) When a new technology with radically
different and improved capabilities of communication is first introduced
into society, it will profoundly change the culture and, indeed, mark
the beginning of a new civilization. Qualities inherent in the technology
help to shape this new culture.
(2)
New civilizations produce new institutions of power as functions once
handled informally become organized, detach as separate power centers,
and assert political and cultural dominance.
(3)
Each civilization develops its own dominant beliefs and values, its
own models of attractive personality, and its own "religion"
in a broad sense.
(4)
Civilizations follow a life cycle in which their period of "youth"
is marked by vigorous growth and cultural creativity, their period
of "adulthood" is marked by the formation of empires, and
their period of "decline" is marked by institutional coercion
and violence involving those empires.
(5)
Themes or values that prevailed at the beginning of an historical
epoch often give way to their opposite as the epoch comes to an end.
(6)
The arrival
of a new civilization also affects institutions that were dominant
two epochs earlier. Such institutions undergo a democratizing process.
Now, to apply these patterns to the fifth civilization, we can ask these
questions:
(1)
Assuming that computer technology heralds a new civilization, what
qualities in this technology will shape the new civilization?
(2)
What new institution(s) may become dominant in the society?
(3)
What will be this society's type of "religion", including
its dominant beliefs and models of attractive personality?
(6)
Since commercial and educational institutions became organized during
the third epoch as separate centers of power, one anticipates that
they will be the focus of change two epochs later - as the fifth epoch
of history begins. What changes might be anticipated in these two
areas as computer technology is applied? How might "democratization"
take place in education and in commerce?
Questions
related to the fourth and fifth patterns are difficult to frame since
only in retrospect do we know the prevalent forms of a civilization.
|
(1)
When a new technology with radically different and improved capabilities
of communication is first introduced into society, it will profoundly
change the culture and, indeed, mark the beginning of a new civilization.
Qualities inherent in the technology help to shape this new culture.
Civilization I: Writing was invented in Mesopotamia
around 3100 B.C.; in India, around 2500 B.C.; in China and Crete,
around 2000 B.C., etc. The dates of this invention roughly coincides
with the appearance of city-states and warfare between these states,
leading later to kingdoms and empires. Ideographic writing was too
difficult to produce a literate population but was mastered by professional
scribes. Written records were necessary to support government and
religious bureaucracies.
Civilization II: Alphabetic writing was first developed
in the mid 2nd millennium B.C. in Palestine and Syria. However, it
did not really take hold until around 1000 to 600 B.C. This type of
writing let a broader and more active segment of the population acquire
literacy. Inquiring minds began to explore the concept of words. Religious
scriptures began to appear. These events supported the practice of
philosophy and the development of the world religions.
Civilization III: Printing came to western Europe
in the mid 15th century A.D. This cultural technology helped the dissemination
of knowledge and supported a system of universal education. Printed
newspapers contained commercial advertising which became the principal
way that businesses communicated with customers. Printed books were
a primary resource in schools.
Civilization IV: Various devices of electronic
communication were invented in late 19th and early 20th centuries.
These media created an ongoing spectacle of public events in real
time. They attracted commercial advertising, replacing newspapers
as businesses' primary tool for selling products. Individual performers
became widely known in society.
Civilization V: Computer networks became popular
in the 1990s. They permit two-way communication between individuals
on the Internet. Customers for products can communicate directly with
producers. Search engines hone communications to the user's particular
needs.
(2)
New civilizations produce new institutions of power as functions once
handled informally become organized, detach as separate power centers,
and assert political and cultural dominance.
Civilization I: Government detaches from the temple.
Royal courts are established. Warring kingdoms create political empires.
Culmination in the Roman, Parthian, Kushan, and Han Chinese empires
of 2nd century A.D.
Civilization II: Philosophers offer to reform governments.
Religious prophets challenge imperial power. The institution of world
religion arises alongside secular power to govern society in a dualistic
arrangement.
Civilization III: The Crusades spur Mediterranean
commerce. Moneylenders finance wars between kings, Popes, and Holy
Roman emperors. The wealthy merchants of north Italian cities were
patrons of the arts and educated their children in humanist studies.
From these beginnings commercial empires grew. Universities sprouted
across Europe and America.
Civilization IV: The entertainment industry appeared
as one, among many, in commercial society. When radio and television
became the dominant entertainment media, entertainment became a key
to selling commercial products.
Civilization V: The Internet was a complex of connected
computers pioneered by the Defense department and several universities.
Suddenly new commercial opportunities were found.
(3)
Each civilization develops its own dominant beliefs and values, its
own models of attractive personality, and its own "religion"
in a broad sense.
Civilization I: This was the epoch of civic religion,
when cities had protector gods and emperors were deified. The dominant
personality was the conquering king - Pharaoh, Julius Caesar, or Alexander
the Great.
Civilization II: World religion, as religion, is
well understood. This epoch found its attractive models of personality
in philosophers and religious prophets. The great kings and emperors
were persons versed in philosophy such as Marcus Aurelius, Asoka,
or Alexander the Great.
Civilization III: While the world religions continued
in force, a new secular culture of literature, art, and music became
a carrier of spiritual value. The dominant personality was the creative
artist or writer. Political leaders who wrote good prose took on the
attributes of greatness. Frederick the Great mastered French prose
writing. Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln were known for their
prose eloquence. Winston Churchill was another accomplished writer.
Civilization IV: The world of films, music recording,
radio, and television constitute a cultural "heaven" in
which performing artists are bright stars. Entertainers-turned-politician,
such as Ronald Reagan and Jesse Ventura, are in synch with this age.
Civilization V: We do not know what will be the
"religion" of this epoch, or whether a geek-like personality
will be politically successful.
(4)
Civilizations follow a life cycle in which their period of "youth"
is marked by vigorous growth and cultural creativity, their period of
"adulthood" is marked by the formation of empires, and their
period of "decline" is marked by institutional coercion and
violence involving those empires.
Civilization I: The youth of this civilization
occurred in a time so distant that little is known of it. The adult
phase is marked by the formation of large political empires: Egyptian,
Assyrian, Persian, Greek, Roman, Parthian, Sasanian, Mauryan, Gupta,
Han, and successive Chinese empires. Around the time of Christ, the
Mideastern world was tired of the fighting. People yearned for peace.
Civilization II: The youth is marked by the lives
of great philosophers and religious prophets whose lives are chronicled
in classics of literature such as Plato's Dialogues or in religious
scriptures. These classics tend to have been written at the juncture
of spoken and written culture - when writing was still a novelty.
Greeks were recently literate in Socrates' time. Jesus' life was told
orally before the Gospels were written. Same with Buddha. Harb popularized
writing in Mecca. The adult phase is marked by the institution of
world religion - its ecclesiastical structure, its monasteries, its
relation to secular power. In the phase of decline, the different
religions fight each other: Christians fight Moslems in the Crusades
and in Spain, Moslems fight Hindus in India. This is also the age
of witch-burning and persecution of "heretics".
Civilization III: The youth is the period of the
Italian Renaissance, the age of world discovery, the conquest of the
Aztec and Inca empires, and other heroic times. This culture, recently
exposed to printing, produced William Shakespeare, Cervantes, and
others. Weary of theological disputes, European intellectuals turned
to the study of nature. The adult phase saw the development of large
commercial systems, of universities, and the nation state. In its
phase of decline, Europe self-destructed in imperial rivalries and
two world wars. Ideologies had turned hateful and destructive.
Civilization IV: Humanity turned to lighthearted
pursuits following the two world wars. Popular entertainment became
a larger part of public life. Empire in this epoch consisted of such
things as the Hollywood studios and radio and television networks.
Now there are signs of public disenchantment with big-time entertainment:
the sex and violence of Hollywood movies and television, the destructive
vision of rap music, a generation of young people who do not know
how to read.
Civilization V: The Internet is an exciting place
these days. Its proprietors have become fabulously wealthy as stock
prices climb. Teenage hackers disrupt corporate websites. Internet
use is growing by leaps and bounds. Beyond that, we do not know.
.
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(5)
Themes
or values that prevailed at the beginning of an historical epoch often
give way to their opposite as the epoch comes to an end.
Civilization I:
(a) This epoch is about the enlargement and consolidation
of political power through military force. Its theme is one of the
strong subduing the weak, of victory through bloodshed, of earthly
grandeur and power. At the end of the epoch, contrary ideas came to
the fore. Philosophers proclaimed that goodness is superior to wealth
or power. Jesus taught that the last shall be first, and the first
last and that the meek will inherit the earth. Succeeding the military
conqueror was the "prince of peace". Originally applied
to Solomon who followed the warlike David, this title was later applied
to Jesus as Messiah. Also, two Roman emperors were princes of peace:
Augustus pulled back to a more defensible border at the Danube river
after the disastrous defeat at Teutoburg forest in 9 A.D. Likewise,
Hadrian set the empire's boundaries at the Euphrates river after Trajan's
unsuccessful attempts to reconquer land from the Parthians.
Civilization II:
(a) The early Christians were pacifists. Jesus
offered no resistance to his captors. Christians at first refused
to serve in Rome's imperial armies. But as Christianity became accepted
within the Roman empire, Christians joined the army. Frankish kings
gave the church territories in Italy which needed to be defended by
force. Pope Urban II launched a new era in religious warfare when,
in 1095 A.D., he gave his blessing to a Christian crusade to recapture
the Holy Land from the Moslems. Religious warfare between Moslems
and Hindus and even between Christians and Buddhists (in Japan) characterized
the closing phase of this epoch. The ideal of peace had given way
to that of war.
(b) Influenced by Plato's philosophy, early Christianity
valued "things unseen" above those which could be seen.
The body was evil; mind was good. Poverty was also a virtue. As the
church gained worldly stature, it became wealthy. Churches were adorned
with beautiful art. Massive cathedrals were built in 13th century
France. Renaissance art joined forces with Christianity in the costly
project to rebuild St. Peter's church - quite a thing to be seen.
Civilization III:
(a) Renaissance art is characterized by solid,
round shapes that suggest palpable objects. Beauty lies in the perfected
form of objects. By contrast, at the end of the third epoch the culture
had become highly fragmented. Impressionist art did not attempt to
depict form or shape but instead created the photographic impression
of a scene from scattered dabs of paint. The disjointed forms of Picasso,
atonal music of Stravinsky, Dada, objects trouve, etc., along with
newly invented crossword puzzles, constituted a culture that was without
cohesion or even coherence. This culture was without beauty in a traditional
sense. Carl Jung compared it with the lacerated thought patterns of
schizophrenic patients. A slogan at the Walker Art Museum in Minneapolis
sums up the new ideal: "Bits & pieces put together to present
the semblance of a whole." There can be no integrated whole.
(b) The European nation-state was in the ascendancy
in late Renaissance times. One thinks of the trio of strong monarchs
during the early 16th century: Henry VIII of England, Francis I of
France, and Charles V of Germany, Austria, and Spain. In addition,
Suleiman the Magnificent ruled the Ottoman empire and Akbar the Great
ruled India. At the end of this epoch, the institution of the national
monarchy was dealt a death blow as Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany, Franz
Josef of Austria-Hungary, and Czar Nicholas II of Russia were removed
from their thrones and replaced by democratic or socialist regimes.
The Ottoman empire in Turkey was replaced by a democratic state.
(c) The third epoch of world history is characterized
by the pursuit of wealth. European adventurers invaded the Americas
in search of gold, enslaving Indians and Africans. Commercial colonies
were formed in North America. Industrialization created new wealth.
There was a reaction to this wealth in its waning days as labor unions
were formed to oppose the owners of wealth. The antislavery movement
reasserted human rights above the right to own people. Money was put
in its place.
(d) The third epoch began with Europeans asserting
control over peoples in other parts of the world. First, they overthrew
the Aztec and Inca empires and colonized sparsely populated areas
of North America. Later, Britain imposed colonial rule upon India.
The European powers won trade concessions in China and carved up equatorial
Africa as colonies. The 20th century, on the other hand, was a time
when the European powers relinquished their colonies in Asia and Africa.
Gandhi struggled for Indian independence. Mao Tse-tung and Ho Chi
Minh brought independent rule to their nations under the auspices
of communism.
Civilization IV:
(a) The entertainment culture began as fun - an
unserious and safe activity suitable for children. This culture ends
as big business seeking to protect its intellectual property and media
conglomerates exploiting children by appealing to their violent instincts.
The entertainment media have trivialized political discussions and,
to pay for television commercials, forced politicians to seek money
from special interests. This destructive side of the entertainment
media overshadows its regenerative side.
(b) In the early 19th century, white Americans
ridiculed blacks by supporting entertainment routines such as the
"Jim Crow" ditty and blackface minstrel shows. In the mid
20th century, black entertainers gained respect as black athletes
competed successfully with whites in professional sports and singers
such as Elvis Presley appropriated black musical styles. By the late
20th century, political correctness ruled. Dramas portraying conflict
between black and white Americans have usually put blacks in a positive
role and reserved the villainous roles for whites.
(6)
The arrival of a new civilization also affects institutions that were
dominant two epochs earlier. Such institutions undergo a democratizing
process.
Prehistory and Civilization II: In a preliterate
culture, hereditary priesthoods preside over ritual-based religions
through memorized formulae. In time, these priesthoods can develop
a self-interest at variance with the interest of the larger community.
Civilization II brought a reform of religion. Creeds and ideals became
more important than ritual. Also, the priests of the new religions
were selected from a broader segment of the population. The priestly
positions were not hereditary but were, instead, based on meritorious
or bureaucratic appointment. Buddha forcefully challenged the position
of the Brahmin priests. He said: "No Brahman is such by birth;
a Brahman is such by his deeds." The Buddhist monasteries admitted
both men and women, persons of low as well as high birth. Likewise,
Christianity allowed persons of low birth to rise in the ecclesiastical
hierarchy. In contrast, Jewish priests had come from the tribe of
Levi.
Civilization I and Civilization III: Imperial government
was the dominant institution of Civilization I. In the third epoch
of history, government underwent a democratizing process as commercial
interests asserted their power in society. Democratic political revolutions
occurred in England in the 17th century, in America and France in
the late 18th century, and in Russia and China in the 20th century.
Democracy replaced the hereditary basis of government leadership with
a process of selection based on elections or bureaucratic promotions.
Top government positions became open to persons of low birth. Abraham
Lincoln was a symbol of that.
Civilization II and Civilization IV: The dominant
institution of Civilization II was that of world religion: the church.
How is organized religion democratized in the entertainment age? Some
previously closed religious hierarchies have opened themselves to
the ordination of women. Religion was a base of support for the black
Civil Rights movement in the United States. Televangelist Billy Graham
desegregated his rallies. American entertainment has provided opportunities
for blacks and women.
Civilization III and Civilization V: The newly
emergent, dominant institutions of Civilization III were commercial
and educational institutions. Although we do not know what the fifth
epoch of world history will bring, we can speculate upon the impact
of computers. With respect to commerce, we know that business activity
is strongly influenced by E-commerce. There is, indeed, a democratizing
effect because the Internet lets merchants succeed without much capital
investment. Anyone with a good idea and sound execution can succeed
in selling products. Internet-related companies have created instant
millionaires. With respect to education, the computer can create courses
that will allow students to have high-quality, individualized instruction
at a low cost. Therefore, all people, regardless of financial capacity,
can afford to have a topnotch education - go to the best colleges,
so to speak. That being the case, the fact that a person has attended
one college rather than another should confer no social advantage.
Computerized education will have a democratizing effect.
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Perils
of Prediction
The
science of prediction has a spotty past. Abundant tales show the folly
of attempting to foresee how one or another invention might fare in
daily life. "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines
are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax," said the eminent
British scientist, William Thomson. In 1946, Darryl F. Zanuck, head
of 20th Century Fox, took a dim view of television's future. "People
will soon get tired to staring at a plywood box every night," he
predicted. President Rutherford B. Hayes said of Bell's telephone: "That's
an amazing invention but who would ever want to use one of them?"
Concurring with that sentiment, a Western Union memo commented: "This
telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a
means of communications."
Others
took an overly optimistic view of technologies that were emerging in
their day. A vacuum cleaner manufacturer predicted in 1955: "Nuclear
powered vacuum cleaners will probably become a reality within 10 years."
A writer for the Brooklyn Eagle predicted in 1900 that "mail will
be delivered to homes in pneumatic tubes." Futuristic scenarios
conceived in the 1950s saw masses of people commuting to work in helicopters.
On the other hand, there were many important inventions that no one
foresaw: microwave ovens, Velcro, TV dinners, laser surgery, air bags,
the Internet.
Knowing
the future can be valuable if a person is able to position himself or
invest his money to take advantage of an emerging trend. Stock-market
advisers make a living from keeping abreast of the latest product developments
in their area. Thousands of investors anxiously await each month's issue
of the Gilder Technology Report. Its web site is jammed when the report
is first posted on the Internet. Stock prices quickly shoot up when
Gilder makes favorable comments about a technology or a company with
products utilizing it. Gilder's own following virtually ensures that.
But, of course, the first investors with this information reap the biggest
rewards; investment news is soon discounted.
In the mid 19th century, a group of intellectuals clustered around Ralph
Waldo Emerson were inspired by the thought that American culture would
soon equal or surpass European culture. No one embraced this idea more
enthusiastically than Walt Whitman, the poet, who wrote in Democratic
Vistas: "I, now, for one, promulge, announcing a native expression-spirit
.. for these States ... different from others, more expansive, more
rich and free, to be evidenced by original authors and poets to come,
by American personalities ... and by native superber tableaux and growths
of language, songs, operas, orations, lectures, architecture - and by
a sublime and serious Religious Democracy sternly taking command ...
and from its own interior and vital principles, reconstructing, democratizing
society." What actually came, when American culture triumphed a
century later, was popular culture - films rather than operas, rock
lyrics rather than poems, vaudeville, cartoons, sitcoms, and other unserious
works. Few professed to be creating expressions of democratic culture.
Except in the Soviet Union, that kind of thinking was out of date. Whitman
could not have anticipated the impact of new communication technologies
upon cultural expression.
The
most sweeping kinds of prediction have been associated with religion.
From time to time religious prophets have appeared to announce that
the world would shortly end. William Miller brought thousands of his
followers to the hill tops of Massachusetts and New York state to await
that event, expected to occur within a year after March 21, 1843. When
this period of time had lapsed and all seemed normal, Miller rescheduled
the apocalyptic date for October 22, 1844. Its failure to occur was
dubbed "the great disappointment". The Mormons, Jehovah's
Witnesses, early Christians, Branch Davidians, Heaven's Gate cult, and
others have had similar expectations; yet, to date, the world as we
have known it through history remains largely intact. It is therefore
conceded that attempts to predict ends of the world or any larger course
of events will and should be met with considerable skepticism.
In
30 B.C., right after Octavian defeated Antony and Cleopatra at the battle
of Actium to become undisputed ruler of the Roman empire, an historian
might have made several predictions. First, recognizing that a series
of warlords (sometimes in partnership) had ruled Roman society for more
than a half century, he might have foreseen that the relatively inexperienced
Octavian, Julius Caesar's nephew, would eventually lose out to someone
else in a power struggle. He might have foreseen that the raging tensions
between rich and poor would tear Roman society apart or, perhaps, be
resolved in the Senate. None of these things happened. Octavian had
unexpected political and administrative skills which allowed him to
consolidate power in himself and found Rome's first imperial dynasty.
Dynasties of this type lasted in the West until the 5th century A.D.
and, in the East, until the 15th century A.D.
The
same historian, looking at Rome's position in the world, might have
made several other predictions. Recalling that the Persians had conquered
the Medes and Babylonians, and that Alexander the Great of Macedon had
conquered Persia, and that Rome had conquered the remnants of the Seleucid,
Ptolemaic, and Macedonian Greek empires, he might pessimistically have
expected that some new political empire would conquer Rome's, perhaps
the fierce Parthians to the east. Or, taking a more optimistic view,
he might have expected that Rome would conquer the Parthian empire.
Neither happened. Rome continued to withstand the Parthians despite
centuries of warfare. The Parthians, succeeded by the Sasanid Persians,
likewise staved off defeat at the hands of the Romans. Recalling Julius
Caesar's successful prosecution of the Gallic wars, this historian might
also have expected the Roman empire to expand into barbarian territories
to the north and east. This possibility was only partially fulfilled.
The Romans did conquer much of Britain and Rumania; however, their attempt
to expand eastward into Germany was frustrated when Germanic tribes
led by Hermann decimated three Roman legions in a battle fought in 9
A.D. Octavian, now Augustus Caesar, subsequently fixed his empire's
eastern boundary at the Danube river.
Rome's
ultimate fate was completely off this historian's radar screen. Despite
Hermann's victory, it would have been most unlikely that Germanic or
other nomadic tribes could overrun the western Roman empire, sack Rome,
and establish petty kingdoms throughout western Europe while Roman government
would last in the eastern provinces for another thousand years. Even
less likely would have been that a religious prophet from Galilee, condemned
by action of a Roman proconsul in Judaea and executed for blasphemy
sixty years later, would come to be worshiped as "Son of God";
and that his cult, after centuries of persecution, would first claim
a sizable share of Rome's population and then become Rome's state religion;
and that the new religion of Christianity would provide the cultural
matrix for post-Roman society, converting Rome's nomadic conquerors,
and then spread into lands throughout the earth. World religion as a
successor to political empire would have been most inconceivable.
Fifteen
hundred years later, the possibility of religious empire was plainly
seen. Militant Christians who had expelled the Moors from the Iberian
peninsula were eager to win new souls for Christ. Alexander VI had issued
a papal bull in 1493 dividing the newly discovered lands outside Europe
between Spain and Portugal on condition that they convert the people
of those lands to Christianity. A plausible scenario, given Europe's
destined expansion of influence, was that the Roman church would eventually
rule the entire world. It did not happen. Although Jesuit priests supported
by the Spanish and Portuguese colonial governments converted the native
peoples of Latin America to the Roman Catholic religion, similar efforts
in the Far East failed when the Chinese and Japanese governments expelled
Christian missionaries in the 17th century. Europe itself became religiously
divided during the period of the Protestant Reformation. Despite the
Pope's declaration, the French, Dutch, and English colonized North America;
they seemed more interested in obtaining commercial advantages than
in spreading the Christian religion. The times were turning away from
religious ambition and instead embracing such things as commerce, science
and technology, literature and music.
So
it would seem that would-be predictors of the larger trends would consistently
have been frustrated had they foreseen world history as a logical progression
from things in the past. New institutions and new sets of concerns arise
to replace those known in the past; and it seems that the future will
gravitate more towards what has never been than what was. Of what use,
then, is history in predicting the future?
All
we can say is that history is our main source of knowledge about how
the world works in concrete situations. Political leaders charged with
making important decisions often let historical analogies guide their
decision making process. For instance, Harry Truman wrote in his autobiography
that he saw a parallel between the Congressional "Committee on
the Conduct of War" established during the U.S. Civil War, which
became a center of espionage for the Confederacy, and a similar investigating
committee which he chaired during World War II. He therefore took extra
precautions to make sure that this committee did not leak valuable information
to the Nazis. "Almost all current events in the affairs of governments
and nations have their parallels and precedents in the past," Truman
wrote. "I know of no surer way to get a solid foundation in political
science and public administration than to study the histories of past
administrations."
General
Jakabu Gowan, Nigeria's head of state during the war with secessionist
Biafra, had read Carl Sandberg's four-volume biography of Abraham Lincoln.
Identifying his own cause with that of the North, Gowan told reporters
that he could recognize the "Shermans" and the "Grants"
among his commanders. On the other hand, Adolf Hitler was mistakenly
encouraged by President Franklin D. Roosevelt's death to hope that the
Allies might relax their military pressure upon his crumbling nation
because his hero, Frederick the Great of Prussia, had been rescued from
probable defeat when Russian armies pulled back following the death
of Catherine the Great. Such analogies may or may not follow through.
To
predict history on the broadest level we cannot rely upon any particular
set of events proceeding from the present situation but only on general
expectations based on the nature of human societies like the following:
What goes up usually comes down. What is born dies. People fight for
rank and position. Powerful interest groups try to protect their own
turf. These are some of the "lessons" to be drawn from past
history. On the positive side, the new is youthful and vigorous and
creative, but also unpredictable. One must make allowance for unexpected
paradigm shifts. Future history will frustrate our best efforts to project
a certain vision unless, perhaps, we ourselves participate in the fulfilling
events.
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